Global Warming Portugal & 2006 Portuguese Fires

Quite rightly a lot is being made of the global climate warming and what it means to each of us. Many people believe global warming is simply about rising temperatures, a few extra storms, the odd flood and rising sea temperatures. Actually it is a lot more than that and choosing where to buy a home in this respect is increasingly important. Portugal for example in 2006 suffered widespread forest fires after a drought. In 2003 a staggering 15,000 people died in France due to a severe heat wave there. Plus floods throughout Europe and especially the UK are important reasons to make sure any home you buy is in the right area; we chose our home here on the Minho River based partly on the expected climate change model for Northern Portugal.

First, to understand what will undoubtedly happen, it is not just the increasing average world temperature you need to consider, but also the change in weather patterns due to the tropics moving further north and south. Most people think of the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn as straight cartographic lines around the globe; they are not. The true tropics are far from straight and are actually defined by a complicated series of high altitude jet streams called “the Hadley circulation”; global warming is actually pushing the true tropic lines further towards the poles. This is important to the effects of global warming as they govern wind directions at ground level, plus rainfall. The northerly extreme of the Tropic of Cancer (the tropic for the northern hemisphere) used to run along the north coast of Africa. Anything just north of it (the Mediterranean and Algarve) receiving good rainfall, not least because of the frequent South Westerly winds coming in off the Atlantic. Anything just south of it (North Africa / the Sahara Desert) being very dry and hot, with the winds most often coming from the hot dry south and south east.

With the true climatic Tropic of Cancer moving further north, there are some very real concerns that the Mediterranean and Algarve will not just suffer average temperature rises, but will become much hotter and drier, suffering dangerous heat waves and chronic water shortages. When we bought our home we considered projections for climate change at the time which still, thankfully, hold good to this day; Northern Portugal is believed to be one of the areas in the world that will be least affected by climate change. Yes, average mean temperatures are set to rise here. Yes, rainfall is expected to decrease here. But the predictions are around a 4 degree Celsius mean increase and only a 10% loss of rainfall for this area by 2071. Compare this with the Algarve and Mediterranean which is expected to lose 50% or more of its rainfall according to the EU and suffer dramatic increases in average temperatures with a crucially large frequency of dangerous critically hot days, such as caused the probelm in France in 2003.

Part of the reason we looked for a home on a river was to be able to irrigate our grounds during a drought. Part of the reason we built a swimming pool and again why we wanted to be on a river is in case of fires. We are the first to put our hands up and say we bought a petrol motor water pump on a trolley! Also that one of our friends is very grateful we did and now have their own. During the drought and forest fires in Portugal of 2006, although mostly further south, this area suffered too on both sides of the river / border; having woodland next to our home and the local fire brigade stretched to the point no fire trucks were available at certain times, we were prepared! One day friends of ours called us in a panic to borrow our pump because woodland next to their home further East was ablaze, heading their way and the fire service were not there in sufficient numbers to prevent it spreading to their grounds and even property. Fortunately they also have a swimming pool and we were able to protect their home and help extinguish the fire with our mini fire engine water pump (it has a 50 meter hose).

Being on a large river, in 2006 we watched the coastguard helicopters, which double as fire fighting aircraft, come and fill up their large water buckets right in front of our home. This deep river, our swimming pool, taps / faucets around the grounds and not least our mini fire truck allowed us to relax while others were in panic. The only problems we endured were small carbonized (cindered) leaves falling out the sky into the pool (for us to clean) and two days where it was so hot and smoggy we had to sleep in the air-conditioned and generally cooler (because it is built into granite) downstairs lounge, as we could not open the middle floor bedroom windows for the smog. Also, if droughts return, we have a licensed river pump to irrigate our grounds while others may face hosepipe and irrigation bans for mains supply water.

On the other side of the coin, in the rare event the River Minho was to flood, given the huge hydro-electric damn and reservoir up river now makes control much easier, we are well above the flood line; our lower grounds might get flooded, but our home is well above that.